Pasaulio ekonomikos apžvalga „Nordic Outlook“ (anglų kalba)

High stakes as the global economy enters a new year

Every year has its challenges. Last year was all about tariffs, geopolitical tensions and how the world would deal with all the dramatic actions from the White House. But despite plenty of turmoil and diversions along the way, the end result was quite good in economic terms. There was no escalated trade war as Europe and many other countries showed restraint and accepted higher tariffs without retaliating. The impact on inflation was smaller than expected and growth and markets proved resilient. Moving into 2026, many of us thought it would be a rather quieter year, at least where tariffs are concerned. We saw a number of major trade agreements in place in 2025 and surely, they couldn't start unravelling this soon? But the new year had hardly begun before we heard that the US, with police and military help, had arrested Venezuelan President Maduro to put him on trial in a New York court and that the US would now 'rule' Venezuela indefinitely and have the right to its oil resources. Soon afterwards, President Trump reiterated his demand for ownership of Greenland. This was quickly backed up with new tariff threats against countries that don’t support him in these ambitions. Not even military means were ruled out.

Sighs of relief echoed among the Alpine peaks in Davos, Switzerland, when Trump announced at the World Economic Forum that there would be no military action against Denmark and no extra tariffs against countries that sent defence forces to Greenland. Nevertheless, the first few weeks of this year have sent a clear signal: the trade issues have not been resolved. Tariffs remain Trump's favourite tool to influence his environment, and this is not the last time the tariff threat will be used. Nor will geopolitical tensions and trade imbalances disappear. Last year, for example, China managed to set a new record for its trade surplus, despite the trade war with the US.

“The year that determines the next ten years.” A number of major economic, legal, economic policy and geopolitical issues are to be decided this year, and they will have an impact for a long time to come. The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of President Trump's use of tariffs and his attempts to fire individual Fed members. The outcome will have far-reaching consequences for the Fed's independence and for the future of US separation of powers. Can a peace settlement be reached on Ukraine and can NATO continue to function after the dramatic start to the year? In terms of growth, it will be interesting to see whether the factors that dominated in 2025 – AI investments in the United States and defence and infrastructure investments in Europe – will manage to drive the economy this year. And could 2026 be the year when Europe, under the pressure of deteriorating relations with the US and increasingly tough competition from China, finally gets its long-term growth agenda moving? Our forecast is that the US economy will continue to grow faster than the EU, but with significant differences between individual EU countries. German growth is finally levelling up, and the Nordics stand out as excellent performers. But other countries are slowing and there are a number of risks – both upside and downside – that are hard to predict.

This issue of Nordic Outlook also includes in-depth themes that address the following topics:

• Ukraine – What will the economic consequences be when the war ends? 
• Difficult trade relationship – Unsustainable imbalances between the EU and China 
• Spain – Europe’s growth engine 
• Sweden’s sovereign debt – Increased uncertainty but far from a debt crisis

We wish you pleasant reading!