Pasaulio ekonomikos apžvalga „Nordic Outlook“ (anglų kalba)
A troubled world continues to hope
The slowdown is continuing but looks different in different countries. The United States will see a soft landing after showing surprising resilience. The euro area economy is still fragile, while the outlook for China has stabilised. Due to weak demand and high interest rates, growth will remain anaemic. Geopolitical turmoil poses downside risks, but lower inflation, high employment and rising real wages provide hope. Key interest rates have peaked, and the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle by mid-2024.
The Middle East war is adding to an already uncertain geopolitical situation, with further human suffering from a growing number of conflicts. The Hamas-Israel war is unfolding close to oil-producing countries, contributing to economic volatility. It also risks decreasing the world’s financial and military support for Ukraine. However, our main scenario is that the economic consequences will be limited. Inflation trends remain perhaps the most decisive factor for economic activity, interest rates, the stock market and asset prices. Tighter financial conditions during the third quarter, including higher long-term bond yields, will reinforce the impact of already high key rates and help central banks cool their economies and ease inflationary pressures. But they are also leading to greater uncertainty about how much tightening these economies – and the financial system – can handle.
We wish you pleasant reading.